July brought a calming effect on the Polish stock market, and the turnover on the WSE shows that the holiday season is in full swing. The season of companies' financial results has already started, but most of the reports will be published at the end of August, so it is too early to draw binding conclusions, according to the fund managers at Skarbiec TFI. The nominal value of trading on the WSE fell below PLN 20 billion for the first time since August last year and amounted to PLN 18.3 billion, which means a decrease by almost 16% on a monthly basis and by 21% y / y. As pointed out by Michał Ficenes, fund manager at Skarbiec TFI, comparing the turnover of this holiday period with the previous one, it is impossible not to notice that last year it was impossible to go on holiday (lockdowns all over the world), and this year is different. "Investors will need to rest before most of the reports for the first half of 2021 and to build expectations for 2022, in the environment of still some uncertainty. So far, about a quarter of companies from our investment group have published the results (I mean companies present in both portfolios , as well as those meeting the criterion of liquidity or broadly understood "quality" - about 120 companies in total)). Therefore, it is too early to draw binding conclusions. So far, the number of positive and negative surprises (without taking into account the scale of "beating" or "underestimating" expectations) is roughly evenly distributed, while in the previous reporting period (Q1), those "positive" prevailed "- wrote the manager, Michał Stalmach in the Society's monthly analysis. As he pointed out, in July the main indices gained, respectively, mWIG40 2.8%, WIG20 2.3% and sWIG80 1.0%, continuing the good streak that had been going on since April last year. The blue chip index, expressed in dollar terms, gained 1.4% in July, which was a much better result than the 6.7% discount in the case of MSCI EM. According to the manager, Asian markets are worried about economic growth in the background with a fourth wave of COVID-19 as a result of low levels of vaccination of societies. Moreover, decisions on new, radical regulations concerning the technology, private education and developers sectors resulted in a strong sell-off of their representatives. China wants to make it difficult for domestic companies to access capital on the American market and strengthen their supervision. The migration of capital from the Chinese market, which is by far the largest component of MSCI Emerging Markets (37% share), is an opportunity for other emerging markets, including our market local (it is worth mentioning here that the weight of Poland in the MSCI EM index is currently only 0.7%). In terms of vaccination, we are slowly approaching the equality of the number of people vaccinated with the first (18.4 million) and the second (16.2 million) doses. As indicated, however, the decreasing number of vaccinations per day is worrying. "Poland 38 million population, only about half of the population has vaccinated so far, even with the number of unvaccinated, we are probably already reaching the level of herd immunity. On the subject of COVID-19, we are still waiting for the situation to develop due to the spreading variant, Delta. On the one hand, we are already half vaccinated and in the typical period of lower virus activity (summer), on the other hand, we know that it is currently the dominant variant in the world with a very high R0. However, we do not expect further lockdowns in Poland," added Michał Ficenes. As Ficenes emphasizes, it cannot be ruled out that some restrictions will be introduced locally, in areas with a lower percentage of vaccinated. Skarbiec Holding is a group that deals with the management of investment funds (open-end investment funds, specialized open-end investment funds, closed-end investment funds) and contract management services for financial instruments portfolios. Skarbiec Holding S.A. is the sole shareholder of Skarbiec TFI S.A., which was established in 1997 as the fifth investment fund company in Poland and is one of the largest companies independent of any banking and financial group in Poland. Source: Skarbiec TFI and ISBnews