Industrial/Logistics 54932 no image

Wilkinson (CTP): Industrial demand will continue to grow

How do you explain the fact that new investments haven't stopped, even though employers keep _x000D_ complaining about the tightening labor market?_x000D_ The first thing to say is that the labor shortage is real. With unemployment of around 2 percent in the Czech Republic, you're basically at full employment. The reason investment continues is simply because work is being automated. You see a lot of robots and a lot of engineers programming those robots and then a less skilled workforce as well. It's the middle ground that may be being killed. One of the great strengths of the Czech economy is the affinity of the Czechs for engineering and the significant number of engineers they produce every year. _x000D_ _x000D_ _x000D_ There's concern that new investors with higher added-value products will be able to pay their employees more and compete for local labor. _x000D_ I think what you find is that companies are increasingly specialized in smaller and smaller niches and becoming dominant in that niche. That allows them to become specialized enough to attract and retain the staff that they need. Successful companies will continue to find ways to grow. We haven't seen any real stress yet with our tenants. On the contrary, we're seeing continued demand and we will grow by around 1 million square meters around the region this year. Our core vacancy as of the middle of the year was 3.2 percent and what we're building now is more than two-thirds pre-let. _x000D_ _x000D_ _x000D_ How are you dealing with rising construction prices? Some developers are having trouble finding contractors to build their projects. _x000D_ I think it's different for us because we're consistently building on the market. We've been doing this for the past 20 years and will continue to do so. As a company that's constantly employing the same contractors and subcontractors, it's easier to deal with these constraints when they come up. Construction companies are interested in a continuity of business through the downside as well as the upside._x000D_ _x000D_ _x000D_ From what you can tell is the economy still strong? You're not seeing any signs of cooling?_x000D_ The global economy is still going very well and we're not seeing signs of stress in our tenants. This cycle is very different from the last one. In the last one, the private sector went into the cycle with a massive amount of leverage led by the US housing market but not limited to it. If you look at the financial position of corporates and the lending standards of the banks at the moment, there's much less leverage in the system. That's a very positive thing for everyone. Whatever downturn we see, it will be a milder and shorter and that it will be triggered by rising interest rates. I see no reason for the ECB to be persisting with the policy of low rates. and I expect rates to increase next year and to continue to rise._x000D_ _x000D_ _x000D_ Where are we now in terms of the investment cycle for industrial assets? Yields are probably about as low as they're going to go, aren't they?_x000D_ I think the industrial sector was the hidden gem a few years ago and that everyone realizes that there are long-term cyclical forces driving the demand for longterm industrial space. Those include the atomization of the production chain with increased specialization in production or whether it's the growth in demand for logistics space driven by more and more e-commerce space. Neither of those trends is going to change, they're going to continue. So the industrial sector is one that will benefit from continued, ongoing demand. _x000D_ I think yields are overall at low levels, albeit the spread between property yields and government bonds is still extremely high. So there's still a significant yield pick-up if I'm an investor in buying a real asset compared to buying a financial asset. If you look a history, the gap hasn't been so high very often. The narrowing will come through rising interest rates which won't necessarily force yields higher very quickly.